The World Cup knockout stage - now the tournament starts for real. Four years of preparation comes down to 80 minutes of rugby.
Nothing over those four years can prepare a team for knockout rugby. No autumn international, Tri-Nations or Six Nations game can replicate the pressure of a World Cup quarter or semi-final.
Can the All Blacks and Australia play fluent, attacking rugby under that pressure, knowing any mistake could mean the end of their tournament and four more years of hurt?
Last laugh: Johnson will be smiling on Saturday, says Ed
For me, this is when the 'knockout specialists' - South Africa and England - come to the fore. Neither side plays great rugby but both teams know how to win matches under pressure and grind out a result.
I fancy England to slowly squeeze the life out of the French up front and win ugly. That is what knockout rugby is all about.
Ed Chamberlin
Quotes of the week
At this stage it's almost easier to let the opposition have the ball and try to play the rugby, while you keep it tight, let them make the mistakes, and then pick them off.
We got a taste of what knockout rugby is all about last weekend. England against Scotland was an awful spectacle in which the Scots tried to play all the rugby and England just ground them down. The teams that play the best rugby won't all win this weekend.
If there wasn't enough pressure already on New Zealand, the news of Dan Carter's injury made it a whole lot worse. Has one man's injury ever influenced a country's price more than the All Blacks? New Zealand have drifted from 8/15 to 8/11 pretty much all because of the loss of their fly-half.
Sky Bet's Handicap betting: Ireland -1pt (10/11) v Wales +1pt (10/11) Saturday, 6am
This should get the quarter-finals off to a flying start as both sides, unlike the two teams in the day's second quarter-final, are playing some really good rugby. It looks very hard to call and I'll be having a small bet on the draw after 80 minutes at 16/1.
England -4pts (10/11) v France +4pts (10/11) Saturday, 8.30am
England have been poor so far, yet France have been even worse. I read little in to the French disunity as they can easily turn it on on the day. If this was a friendly I would still fancy the French to win as they are much the more talented side. However, England beat them when it matters in World Cups and I think they'll edge past them again on Saturday. I fancy England to slowly squeeze the life out of the French up front and win ugly. That is what knockout rugby is all about.
Australia -1pt (10/11) v South Africa +1pt (10/11) Sunday, 6am
Similarly, the Springboks can strangle the Wallabies. South Africa are far inferior to Australia and New Zealand but thrive in this environment. I tipped South Africa ante-post at 10/1 and remain hopeful that they can defend their title.
New Zealand (-26pts) v Argentina (+26pts) Sunday, 8.30am
The All Blacks are much the best side in the competition but will be vulnerable in the knockout stage and without their talismanic fly-half. However, they should still be far too good for Argentina.
Premier League
The international break. Seven Premier League games gone. What have we learnt so far?
First, we clearly have a three-way race for the title. The Manchester clubs have stolen the show and headlines so far but I remain convinced that Chelsea are getting on an irresistible roll. I said two weeks ago that 11/2 with Sky Bet was a big price about Andre Villas-Boas' side and I still think they are the best value of the big three at 7/2.
Manchester United are the team to beat but are very short at 10/11 and, as Paul Merson explained on Soccer Saturday, their style will always give the opposition a chance and I can't help but think that some punters have got a bit carried away with their performances so far. City will also blow a lot of teams away but still have questions to answer about their desire and unity on and off the field.
Chelsea are strong in every department and I can see them getting better and better as they get used to their new manager. Arsenal look like they've already fallen by the wayside but we are still set for a thrilling title race.
The race for fourth could be equally close. Will Arsenal even be involved in this battle? They have already taken a big walk out to 5/2 with Sky Bet to finish in the top four (Liverpool evens, Tottenham 6/4) and have drifted to 1/3 to finish in the top six. I asked Alan Smith in the studio on Super Sunday if he'd take a sixth place finish if I offered it to him now. He didn't seem sure whether to accept it or not!
Alan had had to endure yet another disappointing afternoon for his old club. I thought Arsenal actually played pretty well but looked capable of conceding a goal every time Tottenham went forward.
Glenn Hoddle explained that Arsene Wenger's training methods work well when he has high-quality individual defenders at his disposal but at the moment he feels they need a defensive coach to get the back four working as a unit.
Tottenham's win in the North London derby made it four winning 'bets of the week' from the last five selections, all odds against as always, and we are getting on a nice roll as the season gets in to its stride. The one loser amongst that run was backing Stoke to win at Sunderland.
The lesson learnt from that game is how difficult sides find it to play a Premier League game on a Sunday after a Europa League match on the Thursday evening, particularly if both matches are away from home. Stoke and Celtic have fielded strong teams in Europe and both struggled with the weekend fixture that followed. Stoke looked unrecognisable again at Swansea on Sunday. Punters take note.
Finally, player of the season so far? Simple: David Silva.
